Scenario narratives describe the key drivers and the intended travel patterns to be tested by each scenario, as follows:

Greater Growth on the Water key drivers will help us test greater cross-harbor travel. Greater Growth on the Water key drivers include:

• Growth in water-oriented activity
• Port of Virginia becomes even more competitive with freight more multimodal
• More dispersed housing locations
• Moderate assumptions for CAV adoption and network adaptation

Greater Growth in Urban Centers key drivers will help us test more urban and multimodal travel patterns. Greater Growth in Urban Centers key drivers include:

• Significant economic diversification
• Low space requirements per job
• Large role for “digital port”
• New professionals prefer to live or work in urban settings
• High level of Communal Vehicle (CV) adoption and low auto ownership/high TNC mode

Greater Growth in Suburban (Greenfield Growth) key drivers will help us test more overall regional travel. Note: the term Greenfield refers to growth in currently undeveloped areas. Greater Growth in Suburban key drivers include:

• Growth is suburban or exurban, but growth includes walkable mixed use centers
• Port of Virginia becomes even more competitive
• “Digital port” brings additional jobs
• Housing is more suburban
• High level of Autonomous Vehicle (AV) adoption and network adaptation

Sea level rise is assumed as 3 feet in all scenarios.

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